China's economy crashed in the 60's US manufacturing saved them, but they failed to get enough money to build the middle class they need to support them long term. Russia failed in the late 80's and that lead to their gov collapse, and the graduates of the 80's were the last ones able to run their economy, and they are retiring now/soon without replacement, hence the Ukraine war. The last death throes. EU got too addicted to Russia oil in the 90's as Russia tried to save itself and we are seeing what happens with the reduced mfg in Germany. China makes more BMWs than Germany does. and Germany is their best economy. Everyone else was riding their coat tails, most will probably end up like Greece. Really the only thing that can stop the US is the reduced wages and loss of the middle class, because the middle class actually creates the velocity of money that the market runs on.

If the government becomes unable to tax the rich you'll see the rich have the homeless and jobless locked up and either sold into private prisons as slave labor or given the gas chamber. An irony because while abortion is illegal, so is being born into poverty.

> Do you expect recession or growth?

Infinite growth for its own sake is the ideology of the cancer cell, and it's not sustainable either; and all it takes is a solar flare to wipe out all our electronics, satellites, etc bringing us back into the dark ages. Maybe it's what we need. A great reset.

Growth. De-escalation of current conflicts and new conflicts arise. EU/US economy prevails. Change in China kicks off new growth and prosperity. Renewable electricity and batteries continue to take off and global GHG emissions fall.

At least from my experience and from the suggestions from Nassim Taleb (e.g., past events/data != future outcome/data), we cannot reliably predict the future.

The only thing that is constant is, as someone a long time argued, is “change”. Arguably, basic needs, and with that I mean existential needs, seem to be universal for most lifeforms: water, forms of energy (i.e., food, warmth), and the ability to maintain your system.

If something very bad hits the fan (no agriculture, no public farmland), you and me probably need to first learn how to make fire, how to purify water and how to catch fish. Fishing without permission could lead you to jail, but in tough situations, the legal stuff might be not your main concern. How much does it cost to get a permission? Can you afford it if you're homeless and no one is helping or giving you a job, a shelter? How are you going to get taxed and pay your government your state employees (e.g., police)? Who will then pay police to enforce laws? Or who will protect your basic constitutional rights, if you cannot pay taxes to finance a judge? Or, more extremely, what if a lot of people will be out of a job overnight? What will the government and state people do then without this transaction? So, there's a lot of what ifs… We aren't there yet.

In other words: how can you take part in a fair society if there are no jobs available, especially if you're old, unlucky, or your skills aren't as useful anymore because of LLMs or possibly AGI? Which means society does not need you, and perhaps would like to get rid of you.

The question is, will wealth (the ability to make transactions) still be relevant if AGI becomes a reality? What kind of transactions can you make? Buy AGI systems powerful enough to fulfil all kinds of labor needs, buy farmland, buy wells or sources of clean water? However, why should this be possible if some of us live in a democracy, even if there is a great influence from those with wealth?

Since I tend to be negative about things (i.e., I am biased), it's hard to say for sure what will happen. Further, there might be a lot of things I have not considered (tunnel vision).

PS: the dollar has no intrinsic value, we give value to it. So, I do not know what wealth means, if there is significantly less need for human labor. Ultimately, if some of us can have “free slaves” (i.e., robots), then some of us arguably do not need to have wealth (the ability to make transactions). Only raw power/dominance and luck.

The obscenely wealthy will become more obscenely wealthy while everyone else suffers with a "great economy".

Deglobalization is going to force a restructuring of supply chains and a reconsideration of just in time practices.

A large scale switch to regenerative agriculture makes it possible to reduce climate change by pulling gigatons of co2 out of the atmosphere.